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Elon Musk amplifies dubious claims of “spasms” and “seizures” after COVID-19 vaccines

Thanks to Elon Musk, two-year-old videos showing people claiming to have “seizures” and “spasms” due to #CovidVaccines have resurfaced and gone viral. Antivaxxers are partying like it’s 2009—or 2021.

I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again—and likely again and again and again. In the age of the pandemic, everything old is new again when it comes to antivaccine misinformation, disinformation, and conspiracy theories. Indeed, the new COVID-19 conspiracy theories only differ from old antivaccine conspiracy theories in certain details specific to the coronavirus causing the pandemic and the vaccines used to prevent COVID-19; for example, antivaxxers might have built up elaborate “mechanisms” and conspiracy theories based on the rare occurrence of myocarditis after the vaccination, but the message is still that vaccines are killing young people and causing
depopulation,” just as the antivax message about Gardasil was that it was killing girls and young women back in the day. So I’m rather embarrassed to say that it came as a bit of a surprise to me that the latest viral trend seems to be videos of people claiming that COVID-19 vaccines caused them to develop chronic spasms and seizures.

Here’s an example of what I mean, in response to Elon Musk’s claim that he had serious side effects from a second COVID-19 booster:

Mr. Musk, you’re not helping things.

I soon realized that most of these stories date back to 2021, some to January 2021, when the COVID-19 vaccines were being administered still mainly to healthcare workers, who were first in line to get the then-limited supply of vaccines. I also discovered that her son Brent Griner had posted this video to Facebook two years ago:

I’m no neurologist, but looking at the video above I started to get strong flashbacks to 2009. Why do I say 2009? Does anyone remember Desiree Jennings? Does anyone remember the videos of her claiming that she got dystonia from an influenza vaccine and how much the media botched the reporting on her claims? Remember how if she walked backwards, the strange jerky movements resolved themselves? Remember how neurologists (like Dr. Steve Novella) said that this didn’t look at all like dystonia? Remember how her Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS) report was located, and it turned out that, when she was admitted to the hospital, her “admitting neurologist felt that there was a strong psychogenic component to the symptomatology”? (Also please remember that “psychosomatic” and “psychogenic” do not mean that the patient isn’t suffering real symptoms.) And then how she was miraculously “cured” of her dystonia by none other than longtime cancer and autism quack and antivaxxer Dr. Rashid Buttar?

Just like Ms. Jennings, Ms. Desselle has found her quack too:

Dr. Pierre Kory is quite proud of it too:

It’s not for nothing that they call Alex Berenson the pandemic’s wrongest man.

Of course, one mistake that antivaxxers made with respect to the Desiree Jennings case was that they called her condition “dystonia.” That made it ridiculously easy to search the VAERS database and find what was almost certainly her report and discover that she almost certainly did not have dystonia.

Here’s another case:

Let’s just say that I’ve never seen a seizure like that either. Again, I’m not a neurologist, but even so, I wasn’t the only one noticing…inconsistencies…in his story:

In fairness, he seems to have just gotten one date wrong, but it is rather odd that he claims to be so disabled and yet can be seen out and about as noted. Then there’s this video:

Then there is Shawn Skelton, who has similarly been posting videos like this to social media:

And:

And on Facebook in January 2021:

And a compendium of videos on YouTube:

What all of these cases have in common is that their “seizures” and “spasms” don’t look like anything I’ve ever seen before, which is why I sent them to a real neurologist, Dr. Steve Novella. Another thing that they all have in common is that there is little or no medical information to allow doctors and health professionals to determine whether there is any “there” there:

For instance, with respect to Ms. Skelton:

“By Thursday morning, I was in full body convulsions,” she said. “There’s nothing that will convince me that this is not from the Moderna vaccine.”

Since her video was posted, she’s been treated and released from Deaconess Orthopedic Neuroscience Hospital, according to the Evansville Courier & Press newspaper.

Skelton said an MRI, CT scan and blood cultures yielded no answers. According to her fiance, doctors told Skelton her problem is likely stress-related. The CDC told the Courier & Press that Skelton’s symptoms aren’t common in people who’ve taken the vaccine.

PolitiFact reached out to Skelton on Facebook, but hasn’t heard back. In a Facebook post on Jan. 18, she said she’s raising money to help pay for treatment.

Remember the first woman whose video that I posted from Twitter above, Angelia Gipson Giselle. Another article from 2021 reports:

The Facebook videos were short but unsettling. One, posted on the profile of Indiana resident Shawn Skelton, shows her shuddering on what looks like a hospital bed, an exhausted look on her face. In another, Skelton spends over a minute sticking her tongue out as it writhes oddly. Three other videos – all just a few seconds long – were posted by Louisiana-based Brant Griner, and feature his mother Angelia Gipson Desselle violently trembling and struggling to walk in a dimly-lit hospital room.

The videos all made the same claims: both Skelton and Desselle had been vaccinated for Covid-19 shortly before developing their tremors, and the vaccine, they alleged, was to blame. There is no evidence that this is the case. But, on Facebook, the truth rarely matters. For days, the videos spread unchecked, racking up millions of views and tens of thousands of comments. Devoid of context and, even now, challenging to factcheck, their spread is the latest salvo in the struggle to debunk vaccine disinformation and misinformation. To date, the videos have been shared by Facebook groups that push natural and alternative medicines, anti-vaxxers, 5G conspiracy theorists and by the far right.

Sound familiar? If that doesn’t, then how about this:

Skelton wrote on Facebook that doctors chalked up her shaking to conversion disorder, a mental condition triggered by extreme stress. In a Facebook post on January 12, Skelton said she remained unconvinced that stress was the cause of her condition. Since then, she has been posting about using CBD oil and “detoxing”. A friend of Skelton’s has also started a fundraising campaign, asking for $4,000 to pay for a doctor able to provide her with the “answers she deserves” about her condition. As of January 22, it has raised $4,560 from 127 donors.

Just like the case of Desiree Jennings, there is quackery involved, and money being raised to pay for the quackery. A similar dynamic appears to be at play with Ms. Desselle:

She then claims to have developed symptoms – abnormal heartbeat, trembling, difficulty moving, pounding headaches – on January 9, when she was admitted to hospital. In a video published from what appears to be her hospital bed, Desselle says that, after her hospitalisation, she was diagnosed with Wolff-Parkinson-White syndrome, a congenital heart condition that can cause an irregular heartbeat. She does not explain whether the doctors who visited her linked her symptoms to the syndrome or to the vaccine.

In another video, she says that her doctor thinks that her symptoms were “related to the vaccine. He said there are some metals in the vaccine that have done this to my body.” The Pfizer vaccine contains no metal. A Pfizer spokesperson says that neuromuscular disorders are not among the known side effects of its vaccine.

At the time of this report, there were no reports in VAERS of this sort of reaction, either.

There are a number of things to note about these stories. First, there is no evidence that the “seizures” (if they are that) and “spasms” (if they are that) have anything to do with COVID-19 vaccines, just as there was no evidence to show that Desiree Jennings’ “dystonia” had anything to do with flu vaccines. Also, a number of doctors noted that their movements did not look like anything like, well, anything, as Dr. Steve Novella noted two years ago:

When looking at the video it is possible to say what the movements are not – they are not convulsions, dystonia, myoclonus, ballismus, chorea, ticks, or any specific kind of tremor. After eliminating all the known phenomena of involuntary movements, what’s left?

Good question. Steve gives you an answer from a neurologist’s standpoint:

This is a situation we always approach carefully in neurology. We don’t want to make the argument from ignorance, but eliminating everything possible is significant. There are essentially two possibilities left – either this is a new phenomenon currently unknown to neurology, or it represents a conversion disorder, which is essentially psychological. But are there any positive signs that indicate a conversion disorder, rather than this only being a diagnosis of exclusions? Sort of. Experienced clinicians who have seen many patients with psychological movements develop an eye for what they tend to look like. There may be specific features, but also a gestalt. In any case – if I looked at this video without any context, I would conclude this is overwhelmingly likely to be conversion disorder. Apparently every physician who has seen this patient agrees, and other neurologists have commented publicly that this is likely the case.

Comments on social media tend to fall into two categories – that this is clearly a vaccine side effect or that the patient is faking. Neither is likely to be true. Conversion disorder is not “faking” (faking is technically called a factitious disorder, or more colloquially, malingering). People experiencing a conversion disorder do not have insight into what is happening. This also is a real medical disorder, just a psychological one, and should not be stigmatized. But we do need to understand it in order to properly deal with it.

This is why I was so alarmed to see people on “our side” posting things like this:

WTF? It’s awful and offensive to fake a seizure to mock someone who probably has a conversion disorder.

And this:

Seriously, people. Don’t do this.

Again, don’t do this. Before someone with a conversion disorder, also known as a functional neurological system disorder, can be treated, she needs to accept that that’s what she has. Mocking such people is a perfect way to make them double down in their belief that they have a disease or disorder whose symptoms can be traced to a definite anatomic or physiologic cause. Brent Griner took down many of the videos of his mother, Angelia Desselle, because he claimed that he was getting “harassment” from vaccine advocates over that. If that was true, then I will happily tell my readers yet again: Don’t do that!

On the other hand, sometimes antivaxxers conflate criticism and people saying that what they are posting is not credible with “harassment,” making it hard to tell how much is legitimate criticism and questioning and how much might actually be harassment. In such cases, I’ll generally give the benefit of the doubt and simply say: Don’t do that, and, if anyone on “our side” did that, I’ll call them out.

It’s also important to note that many, if not most, of these people probably weren’t antivaccine when they suffered their symptoms. After all, in January 2021, it was actually very difficult to get a COVID-19 vaccine if you weren’t a healthcare worker or elderly, as those were the groups targeted for priority. Indeed, Ms. Skelton is a nurse, which is why she was able to access the vaccine in early January 2020. It is, of course, human nature to look for a cause when a sudden change in health occurs; so it’s not surprising that people like Ms. Skelton would look for causes, the most obvious of which, given all the antivaccine misinformation that was swirling at the time, was the COVID-19 vaccine. It’s also not surprising that people like this would gravitate towards the antivaccine movement, given that antivaxxers believe them instantly, join them in blaming their “seizure” activity on vaccines, and and portray them as martyrs. No wonder Ms. Skelton and Desselle have both been featured on Del Bigtree’s show, because of course they have. (No, I’m not going to link to the show.)

Another important observation is that these stories first went viral two years ago. Seriously, it’s been that long. After their initial virtality in early 2021, with both Ms. Desselle and Ms. Skelton making the rounds of antivaccine podcasts , they had long ago faded into the background of antivax anecdotes and noise, to be replaced by new anecdotes and disinformation.

However, antivax anecdotes and specific pieces of misinformation never truly die. They keep resurfacing again and again, before drifting back into the background noise.The problem is that, when someone as prominent and with as many Twitter followers as Elon Musk gives antivaxxers a chance to resurrect such stories, they can go viral again and antivaxxers can party in 2023 like it was 2021 again. That’s why it’s definitely not good for public health to have a conspiracy-minded billionaire running one of the most influential social media platforms out there.

By Orac

Orac is the nom de blog of a humble surgeon/scientist who has an ego just big enough to delude himself that someone, somewhere might actually give a rodent's posterior about his copious verbal meanderings, but just barely small enough to admit to himself that few probably will. That surgeon is otherwise known as David Gorski.

That this particular surgeon has chosen his nom de blog based on a rather cranky and arrogant computer shaped like a clear box of blinking lights that he originally encountered when he became a fan of a 35 year old British SF television show whose special effects were renowned for their BBC/Doctor Who-style low budget look, but whose stories nonetheless resulted in some of the best, most innovative science fiction ever televised, should tell you nearly all that you need to know about Orac. (That, and the length of the preceding sentence.)

DISCLAIMER:: The various written meanderings here are the opinions of Orac and Orac alone, written on his own time. They should never be construed as representing the opinions of any other person or entity, especially Orac's cancer center, department of surgery, medical school, or university. Also note that Orac is nonpartisan; he is more than willing to criticize the statements of anyone, regardless of of political leanings, if that anyone advocates pseudoscience or quackery. Finally, medical commentary is not to be construed in any way as medical advice.

To contact Orac: [email protected]

218 replies on “Elon Musk amplifies dubious claims of “spasms” and “seizures” after COVID-19 vaccines”

I’m more interested in how Musk’s Tesla cars have seizures in self-driving mode. More people killed by that …

And I don’t believe Musk’s claim he felt like he was dying for two days. Surely he has immediate access to a medical doctor whenever he wants. No waiting at Urgent Care for him. He’s baiting the crazies (again).

You say that as if Musk isn’t a spoiled baby who would probably view typical post-vaccination fatigue/aches/headache/etc as signs of impending doom.

In another video, she says that her doctor thinks that her symptoms were “related to the vaccine. He said there are some metals in the vaccine that have done this to my body.”

That looks like a bad copy-paste of the old – and equally misfounded – claim that “mercury in MMR caused that”.
A recycling of old clichés from the hard antivax brigade. Echoes of 2009, indeed.

This is not helping the credibility of either the victim or the doctor.

Funny how symptoms from covid vaccines are always most severe in people who are ideologically opposed to these vaccines. It wasn’t guaranteed that these vaccines would be safe or effective, but the evidence showed – and continues to show – that they are. These people are so heavily invested in their crazy worldview that admitting they are wrong would be devastating to them.

Orac, I came across a new article on the Brownstone Institute while surfing Reddit, but can’t remember exactly where. Something about the founder.

I don’t think we know if all or any of the people claiming these extreme post-vax symptoms were ideologically opposed to the shots prior. They did get them after all. It seems more plausible that their symptoms are indeed psychogenic/psychosomatic/whatever, but since a) that seems to be a diagnosis the docs can only offer as a possibility, as certain physiological conditions have been ruled out, and there’s no test that can yield a definitive confirmation ‘yep, that’s what it is; and b) they don’t want to remotely consider the notion of ‘it’s all in your head!’ due to the fear of stigma; they thus latch on to whatever ‘alternative’ explanation is out there in the zeitgeist.

We might even guess that the onset of these symptoms might correlate with the vaccinations because the stresses of the early stages if the pandemic were the straws that pushed their psych issues over the edge…

There was a survey well before the vaccines were available about whether people planned to get them. The numbers were sobering: a full third of Americans said they wouldn’t. Many got vaccinated as early as possible out of fear, or were required for school/work, or simply because it was the intelligent thing to do. Note now how many “regret” getting the vaccine, combined with the low rate of boosting. Being anti-vaxx became part of the identity of people with a certain ideology. These people have to cope with the fact that the vaccines are extremely effective and safe, and are grasping at more and more ridiculous straws to defend their positions.

The problem with your original comment is it focuses on a handful of people who, for whatever reason, are genuinely suffering, and looking for answers. What we should focus on is exactly the people who are weaponizing antivax as a badge of tribal ideology — who are cruelly exploiting that suffering handful for their ideological ends. [Being convinced the jabs did them harm most likely works against them getting treatment that might actually help.]

It would be better to follow the headline and consider what Elon Musk is doing here. I’d be stunned by his narcissism, if that wasn’t a pandemic of its own among the plutocracy. So a COVID booster puts him on his tuchus for a day or so — a known totally common and non-worrisome reaction — and he whines that he was on Death’s door, and imagines himself One with the sad souls suffering in those video clips. Poor Baby!

What you gotta look out for John is these cases that somehow get cured by quacks. Gotta wonder if there’s some money changing hands when something like a simple herbal remedy clears up a medical mystery. Bit like those honey trap stories where ‘working from home earned me £483.34 per hour’.

I’m not a neurologist but like Orac, I am not convinced by the videos. However, if the symptoms have psychological origins as I suspect – and medical evaluations illustrate – these people are not to be ridiculed: they are obviously suffering. Would a person without any issues go through the trouble to behave in such a manner? Do the ‘symptoms’ look like seizures or what people think seizures look like? Why are the effects so easy to mimic by a person without any neurological problems like me?

re Twitter:
I’ve noticed that alties I survey ( Mike, Joe and Gary) hint that they may soon be able to tweet to their black little hearts’ content. A few others ( Kim Rossi, Age of Autism, Katie Wright, Joshua Coleman, Del Bigtree, RFK jr) have been tweeting uninterruptedly throughout the last few years.

“…but the message is still that vaccines are killing young people…”

What is killing young people? Because something is killing them, according to the CDC’s own data. In fact, mortality has dramatically increased for people of all ages except young children. https://www.virginiastoner.com/cvax-risk/

BTW, there does seem to be something other than the vax involved in the deaths, because of the unprecedented death surge in April 2020. On the other hand, there was a similar surge of deaths in Dec 2020-Jan 2021, and in August 2021, and the vax is an obvious candidate.

December 2020 to January 2021? Seriously, you do realize that vaccine supplies were very constrained then, that nowhere near enough people were vaccinated then to claim what you’re claiming, and that most of those vaccinated this first two months were healthcare workers and the elderly, right?🤦🏻‍♂️

“Death spikes before vaccines were available, and then again when vaccine supply was very limited.

The vax is the obvious candidate.”

Anti-vaccine activists attribute to vaccines such magic powers, while trying to claim they do not work.

So what do you think caused the unprecedented increase in deaths? Deaths were higher in 2021 than in 2020–so at the very least, the vax didn’t stop the excess deaths.

Does the CDC have an opinion on what’s causing the excess deaths, or is silence their position of choice, as with the massive increase in VAERS reports?

Well yeah, people still die in car accidents, so seatbelts and crumple zones are a waste of time.

They do.
I have posted it several times.
I and others who actually see patients and have throughout this entire mess have opined on this with data to back us up (e.g.-worsening of chronic conditions due to resource constraints, anxiety, etc.)
You keep ignoring all of the above and posting bullsh*t.

Medicalyeti said: “They do. I have posted it several times.”

If you’re talking about the stuff Joel posted, there was some speculation about certain causes of certain excess deaths–anything but the vaccine, of course–but nothing in the way of solid evidence.

If you’re claiming there’s some solid evidence that the COVID19 vaccines have nothing to do with the excess deaths, post a link here, and quote the most relevant passage claiming that.

Or are you claiming that an absence of evidence creates a presumption the vaccines aren’t to blame?

@Ginny Stoner Your data ended January 2021. Do you understand vaccines cannot preven anything when only a few people are vaccinated.
Do you know that reporting to VAERS is mandatory under PReP Act ? Certainly raises number of reports
@johnlabarge Devastating case of mandaory reporting

Aarno Syvänen my data didn’t end in 2021. The yearly data goes through December 2021 (since 2022 data isn’t all in yet), and the monthly goes through November 2022.

@Ginny Stoner Vaccines could not prevent COVID deahs among unvaccinataned either.

You’re saying that deaths were dramatically higher in 2021 and into 2022 than they were in 2020, because of COVID19. That’s a pretty dire condemnation of the vaccines, since it means they’re a miserable failure. Yet you still push them, same as ever.

And you think it’s funny.

I wonder if the CDC agrees with your opinions.

This is pretty incoherent but it seems to me that you think we believe the excess deaths were caused by a COVID infection? You really are not listening, at all, are you?

No one ever said COVID killed these people. We have those numbers, they are separate. Secondary effects of the pandemic caused those excess deaths, just as always happens in EVERY pandemic.

Try to keep up.

BTW – I’m curious: What the hell do you get out of all of this? Writing this crazy nonsense…what does it do for you?

@Ginny Stoner CDC always mention secondary effects, like overwhelming of health system. Just read the analysis.

Twitter has been swamped by shaking videos, recorded by cute, healthy people, trying to mock Angelia Desselle. In fact, I wonder if those people are paid to do so.

Angelia’s tweet:

https://twitter.com/AngeliaDesselle/status/1616809591928688641

Here’s a typical mocking tweet by a good looking redhead making fun of Angelia and vaccine victims:

https://twitter.com/ndngrl69/status/1617561836135538688

I am no neurologist, but I know that I could easily shake like that redhead, in coordinated whole-body vibing moves. (it would not be nearly as elegant of course as I am not a dancer).

However I could never replicate how Angelia’s shakes with all her limbs doing their separate things. Something is very special about Angelia, she either has unusual ability to shake so strangely, or she is genuinely messed up. Looking at her shape and age, I would guess it is the latter.

Compare these videos and let us know what you think!

Thanks. I criticized that woman on Twitter for making fun of Angelia Desselle, and she immediately blocked me. So I took her Tweet and added it to my post, to emphasize that skeptics should not be such assholes and do things like this. I also took the opportunity to quote Steve Novella’s two year old post, which for some reason I didn’t come across, probably because he didn’t mention any names, which were what I searched for.

Thank you for voicing that sensible sentiment Orac. It is regrettable that people get nasty to each other other in heated discussions, but it happens a lot. Antivaxxers also do that sort of thing. Even I may be guilty of being swept into emotions.

Personally, I mostly stay away from vaccine-injury discussions, because it is very rare that people get their first Covid vaccines nowadays. (other than infants, such as one out of 71 young kids in the P306 Moderna bivalent trial, who got asthma from the vaccine which was ruled unrelated by the investigator and no one at the FDA questioned it).

I mostly focus on excess mortality nowadays, which is getting outright frightening.

The UK and continental Europe at 20%+ excess mortality last December and Germany at 36% excess mortality compared to 2018-2019. Even Sweden, which antimaskers always touted, has 20% excess mortality in December after showing none for most of 2022.

Something new and bad started brewing in December.

I am frankly scared of what is happening, it is emotionally wrecking to recognize that there is no way out of this and mortality can get much worse with zero ability to actually turn anything around.

How much worse can mortality get? Nobody knows, use your imagination people.

This could literally wipe out a sizable percentage of the population.

Nobody in positions of power seems to care. That is in itself frightening.

The people in the videos are among the many who have been caused serious harm by antivaxxers who spread falsehoods and FUD about vaccines – antivaxxers exactly like Igor Chudov.

One thing I learned from reading responses to that sleazy Twitter post is that the Toronto Sun is a disreputable rag.

One Twitter respondent linked to a Sun article hyping vaccine injuries, which said that “400 deaths” after vaccination had been reported to Health Canada.

What the Sun failed to mention is that Health Canada looked into 296 reports of alleged vaccine-related deaths where there was enough info to undertake a preliminary assessment (the other 104 reports apparently didn’t have enough detail for followup). Of those 296 cases, Health Canada says:

“155 reports of death were unclassifiable due to lack of available information (not enough information to complete the preliminary assessment)
97 reports of death were inconsistent with causal association to the vaccine (unlikely to be linked to the vaccine)
40 reports of death were indeterminate (insufficient definitive evidence or conflicting evidence for causality)
4 deaths were consistent with causal association to immunization”

Deaths so far in Canada due to Covid-19 infection: over 50,000 (a figure not mentioned by the Sun).

…the Toronto Sun is a disreputable rag.
I am shocked and appalled that you would say that about the most revered and respected paper in Canada.

Subscriptions have fallen off since it has been illegal to wrap fish and chips in newspaper but I am sure this is a minor blip.

When David Miller was mayor of Toronto, at least one of the columnists in the Toronto Sun used to regularly refer to City Hall as ‘Socialist Silly Hall’. When the later crack-smoker Rob Ford was mayor, the Toronto Sun was referred to by City Hall staffers as ‘the daily love letter to Rob Ford’.

The Sun chain tried to start up their own 24 hour news channel in Canada to replicate the ideas of Fox News. It failed; not (as some people tried to claim) because of laws that require news channels to actually truthfully report news, but instead mostly because they could never get approval to be on the ‘basic cable’ list since there were already 24-hour news channels up here, and being stuck as a premium channel meant they never actually made money. Instead the Sun News Network went the podcasting route and morphed into Rebel Media, and among other things one of the original Sun News Network members who moved on to Rebel Media (Faith Goldy) attended the Charlottesville Unite the Right rally and interview folks from The Daily Stormer. Also Gavin McInnes, one of the founders of The Proud Boys, worked for Rebel Media.

So, yes, the Sun chain has deep ties into the alt-right side of things, and as disreputable a rag as the Toronto Sun is, that’s really just the surface layer of it.

Nice summary–thanks! Out here in BC Lower Mainland and Western Washington we mostly have the leftie/hippy version of anti-vax. Lots and lots of alt-med quacks–and cannabis shops. (I live in BC/Wash State). We mostly laugh at Alberta.

A. If asthma was ruled unrelated to the vaccine saying it’s caused by the vaccine is a lie.

B. Pandemics are bad. This one directly killed people and interrupted regular care.

When antivaccine activists look at deaths in the wake of a pandemic and try to blame vaccines, they simply expose themselves as deeply biased.

Dorit, sadly we are not in the wake of the pandemic.

The pandemic is getting worse rather than better and this is what bothers me. Excess mortality in Germany in December was at 36% of the 2018-2019 level. The UK, about 25% above pre-pandemic level. Europe, week 52 was at 35% above normal. Even Sweden is about at 25% above normal mortality in December, despite running at zero excess mortality earlier in 2022. These are huge numbers on par with the worst moments of past Covid waves.

Explanations like “people are dying because [UK] NHS is overwhelmed” do not hold water. NHS is overwhelmed because people are overwhelmingly sick.

I am not sure what is the endgame here, and how exactly these excess death numbers would get better instead of worse, long-term.

Everyone is treating this situation as some kind of a political game, as a ball to be pushed away or thrown at the other side.

I hope that we can realize that at this moment, the humanity as we know it is in danger.

To be blunt, we can easily lose half a billion people or more in the next few years. They could be our friends, relatives, or ourselves. Nobody seems to care or even understand this.

From UK
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/monthlymortalityanalysisenglandandwales/december2022
“In 2022 (using provisional monthly data), deaths were above average in both England and Wales (6.3% and 5.0% above average, respectively), but when accounting for population size and age structure, the age standardised mortality rate (ASMR) for the year was below average for both England and Wales (0.7% and 1.1% below average, respectively).”
Have you heard about graying of nations ?

“Explanations like “people are dying because [UK] NHS is overwhelmed” do not hold water. NHS is overwhelmed because people are overwhelmingly sick.”

You haven’t a fucking clue what you are talking about. Recently it was reported that there were 130,000 job vacancies in the NHS. Even before the pandemic we could easily spend four to six hours waiting to be seen in A&E (now the ED). I was at a nearby hospital last week. Drove into the car park past a large groups of nurses striking for better pay and conditions. No one wants to do the job for the rewards offered. That’s why there are so many foreign doctors and nurses and so many agency staff.

I have no idea how you can spout the absolute shit you do with a straight face but the NHS has been stretched near to breaking point every winter, years before covid was ever heard of.

If asthma was ruled unrelated to the vaccine saying it’s caused by the vaccine is a lie. -no
The folks so ruling could also be getting it wrong.
mRNA vaccines are not safe and probably not worth the risk for most people

mRNA vaccines are not safe

john, you and igor keep pitching that line of bullshit without any supporting evidence. Unless you can come up with a study that shows a link between the vaccines and the things you spew, or igor’s monomaniacal attempts to link excess deaths to it, you’re just showing yourselves to be two more conspiracy lovers who don’t have facts on their sides.

Maybe do some work and learn something about the underlying biology here [which, I admit, I don’t know] and statistics [which I do know a good bit about, far more than either of you two] and make a solid argument.

McCullough has articulated the mechanism for heart damage. There are various studies linking the mRNA jabs to heart damage. Is that really something you’re denying still?

No. He hasn’t. He’s made up a mechanism for heart damage. Dude doesn’t understand biochemistry and molecular biology very well. Either that, or he knows his audience doesn’t and is lying.

He has articulated the mechanism and other studies at least confirm widespread distribution of LNPs throughout the bodies of animals – rats, for example.

No, he hasn’t, and I’ve looked at pretty much every paper he’s cited to promote his fantastical “mechanism.”🙄🤦🏻‍♂️

How is it fantastical? LNPs don’t distribute the mRNA throughout the body? The immune system doesn’t respond to spike expression where expressed or that response is always benign? What IS the mechanism for myocarditis in your view? Mere coincidence?

@john labarge You start speaking heart damage and end upn speaking myocarditis. You should speak myocaritid all the time.

I remember reading Dr. Novella’s post about Ms. Skelton, Now Ms. Vidiella, when it first came out. It was very helpful, as was this post. I also remember that both these women were treated with Ivermectin – if you look at the “Pandemic’s Wrongest Man,” Alex Berenson’s, Twitter, he is having a bit of a debate with Dr. Pierre Kory about Ms. Desselle, which Dr. Kory has been treated. Surprisingly, Berenson is, unusually, trying to take the side of evidence.

You’re the doctor, but what possible argument can there be for giving them ivermectin, if the claim for its working against COVID-19 is that it’s an anti-viral?

https://theness.com/neurologicablog/index.php/be-skeptical-of-video-showing-vaccine-side-effect/

The side of evidence on ivermectin.

He can’t help but take a dig at people with long covid (and yes, I understand that long COVID patients can be vulnerable to grifters, too).

prn.live hosted a $30, 10 hour long **(!!!) seminar for people with ” Covid vaccine injuries” and/ or long Covid which included Pierre Kory and other grifters recommending ivermecton, NAC, various minerals/ supplements/ meds/ herbal treatments.
Throw every product you’ve got at it and see which ones stick?

** I didn’t pay but heard later triumphant synopses from the host

Orac: ” No, I’m not going to link to it.”

Sceptics though, should occasionally take a peek at Del’s broadcasts ( The Highwire once a week, Thursday) to witness the braggadocious, histrionic, non-stop balderdash he produces on a regular basis. It should be noted that his first career was as an actor/ singer ( which didn’t work out) from which he progressed to television and film production ( also not much) before settling upon grifting and fear mongering, mendacious public speaking. ICAN pulls in a great deal of money from people he misleads and/ or who are already misguided providing his healthy salary and travel account.

@ Ginny Stoner

You must be either one of the most dishonest people to post comments on this website and/or the stupidest. Orac, myself, and others have explained the excess deaths over and over again; but you ignore. Our explanations included links to CDC and other websites. I won’t repeat because in your sick mind you will ignore.

Watch the documentary linked to in previous post by Orac. You might learn something; but I doubt it.

KEEP MAKING A FOOL OF YOURSELF

You havn’t explained jack–you haven’t done anything except dance around the question. But by all means, if you know of a paper that specifically addresses the cause of the unprecedented increase in deaths of all ages, link us.

@ Ginny Stoner

Nope, I didn’t give one paper; but CDC and other specific websites that gave the data.

You have NEVER indicated the least understanding of immunology, thus, you can’t possibly understand how and why vaccines work. So, your antivax position is based on your own ignorant fantasy world.

YOU REALLY ARE ONE STUPIDLY BIASED IDIOT.

What does my understanding of immunology, or of how vaccines work, or my anti-vax views, have to do with the CDC’s mortality data?

The data summarized on my page is correct, I don’t see how there could be a dispute about that, since anyone can search the CDC WONDER database just like I did.

The question is, why the dramatic increase in mortality? That’s the question you’re desperately avoiding, Joel A. Harrison, PhD, MPH.

@Ginny Stoner They won’t answer because they can’t. Notice that Orac (almost?) never reviews actual studies or evidence. No steelmen with robust counterarguments will be found here. Nearly every blog post is little more than an ad hominem-laced reaction to social media posts. He does make sure to pepper it with establishment talking points though. Of course not every ailment or death that post-dates an injection is automatically caused by it—it is absolutely correct to point this out. However, steadfast refusal to even consider the so-called “vaccine” as a possible cause to be ruled out is intellectually dishonest and gives away the game. Mr. Harrison can append all the letters he wants to his moniker; it won’t help his credibility.

Notice that Orac (almost?) never reviews actual studies or evidence. No steelmen with robust counterarguments will be found here. Nearly every blog post is little more than an ad hominem-laced reaction to social media posts.

Well, just today I discussed why an antivax study is crappy and doesn’t show what the author thinks it shows.😉

https://www.respectfulinsolence.com/2023/01/25/economist-mark-skidmore-publishes-antivax-propaganda-disguised-as-a-survey/

ldw56old said: “Nobody should trust anything on that pile of 2nd grade level writing you call a website.”

Has your legal department approved your constant stream of false and defamatory allegations?

You have been answered every time, did you notice. You just ignore the answers

Yeah but not in a scientific way. In a conclusory, straw-man loving sort of way. You didn’t address whether bio-distribution of mRNA throughout the body (the LNPs being the vehicle). Would result of expression of the spike protein in various organs (such as let’s say the heart) and what may go wrong when the immune system goes after those cells. The stated mechanism of the mRNA vax, if the LNPs and thus mRNA are in fact widely distributed seems like it could have some serious problems. Not to mention that the protein that gets expressed is itself toxic.

Your article focuses on allegations that the LNPs themselves are toxic. This is a sort of straw man you use to attack antivaxxers without addressing the real argument/anti-mRNA vax hypothesis that LNPs carry the mRNA material all over the body, causing cells in organs anywhere in the body to express the spike protein and subsequently be attacked by the host’s immune system. That is the primary mechanism that McCullough and others state is the reason for the adverse reactions including myocarditis, blood clotting (via endothelial insult) and more. Dr Mobeen goes into some of these mechanisms as well as does Weinstein. Both are skilled in their fields. Weinstein (biologist) is only anti-Covid vax whilst Mobeen (doctor) has had at least one booster. If you want to see an easy to understand mechanism for vax caused clotting, for example, Mobeen has an excellent explanation.

I’ve discussed all that. You just didn’t listen, as you prefer to label science-based criticism as “ad hominem.”😂

I note that one of the people commenting on the videos is named “LOGAN – A Sovereign Being.” Over the past few days I’ve been frittering away some more of the waning balance of my existence watching YouTube videos about “sovereign citizens.” There are a lot of remarkable parallels between sovereign citizens and antivaxxers.

In both groups you find a significant fraction (virtually 100% of SovCits) who think that they have special knowledge and understanding that is hidden from the general populace. With SovCits this imagined knowledge is about law and “secret accounts” wherein the government holds large amounts of money in trust and that can be used to “settle accounts” if one only knows the magic incantations to draw on the funds. Their beliefs are all nonsense and anyone with the slightest ability to examine evidence can see that they are nonsense. Around here we see antivaxxers whose vert ‘nyms try to suggest secret knowledge and understanding e.g. “Indie Rebel” & “NWO Reporter” (who seems to have have reverted to her own name). They harbor all sorts of beliefs that are contrary to evidence (or proper approaches to analysis of evidence) and they repeatedly show that rather than having exceptionally good knowledge and understanding they have astoundingly little of either. Igor comes comes instantly to mind. I’ve seen a multitude of such people commenting on COVID-19 articles on the CBC website. Both antivaxxers and SovCits love to spread their nonsense and in so doing they cause real harm to others. No amount of evidence or efforts to teach them reality and relevant topics will change their views. (That isn’t 100% true – Mr. Meads of Meads v. Meads fame tried to use SovCit type arguments early in the course of his divorce proceedings before the Alberta Court of Queen’s Bench but gave up on them by the end of the trial. His use of such arguments is what lead John D. Rooke, Associate Chief Justice of ACQB, to write his epic decision.)

~~~
By pure happenstance I ran across the videos in Orac’s post just yesterday. They seem to be circulating anew. I didn’t realize they were actually quite old.
I am most assuredly not a neurologist and I haven’t seen very many people convulsing or with distonic disorders, but the movements of the people in videos have little semblance to what I have seen.

Anyone know anything about objective diagnostic methods that might be used? I’m curious if there are methods by which the “conscious mind” of people like those in the videos can be disconnected from exerting voluntary control of muscles without also disconnecting or interfering with involuntary control – not that involuntary movement of skeletal muscles is generally a positive thing. Might a dissociative anesthetic like ketamine be useful?

@ doug:

I agree. These groups both believe that they have secret knowledge that is not revealed to the common herd: in fact, psychologists who studied anti-vaxxers find that common thread- that they believe they are special, uncommon as well as more likely to have paranoid and narcissistic tendencies.

Amongst the alties/ woo-masters/ grifters I survey, nearly every week they have a new discovery or revelation that they broadcast to their enraptured thralls. Of course, this is an obvious attempt to get followers/ sell something BUT I venture that the professionals and the amateurs/ followers have personality traits in common: they believe that they are above it all, are the first to recognise the Truth, need to warn others and thus be harbingers of the oncoming paradigm shift where they will be vindicated as being right all along. Right now, they are crowing about how they were “right” about Covid/ vaccines since the start.

I think the best arguments on both sides are fairly out in the open. But enough time hasn’t gone by to really dig into the anti-covid vax side. The anti-covid vax folks aren’t focusing on toxins (PEG is an allergen of course, but I suspect that everyone is on the same page that in rare cases problems occur there) or anything special. They are focused on the mRNA mechanism itself and concerned that the distribution of the mRNA is causing most of the problems. The vax proponents appear conflicted and compromised to the point of being incurious or just plain dismissive of these concerns all the while severe reactions continue to pile up; the familiar pro-vax trope being to coincident theorize and deny causation at all costs. Aside from that, it appears that the vaccines themselves are not that effective in the real world which includes (and has always included) mutating viruses. I don’t see anything here that is special knowledge; rather it’s a dispute about the science for which a large portion of the folks – pro covid vaxxers – seem relatively compromised for a number of reasons and of course funding sources aren’t interested in. At this point that conflict maybe as much ego as it is group conformity and money related. The other recent issue that anti-covid-vaxxers bring up is immune tolerance which is supported by a recent study that appears isn’t being discussed or taken up by the CDC or FDA. This study is also public and no special information is required to find it Weinstein and Berenson both talk about it at length in a freely available podcast and substack article.

Other concerning facts that are completely out in the open is that pro-(covid)-vaxxers ignored prior infection and immunity in recommending vaccine – unlike for example the chicken pox vaccine for which antibodies are routinely tested. Sloppy data with/from issues in the counting of hospitalizations and deaths which health officials are on record openly acknowledging. Even former covid alarmists are concerned about it (Dr. When Op Ed in WaPo) – mandating and recommending vaccines in less risky populations (college students) for which severe reactions are more prevalent and FDA departures and disagreements over boosters. Also a lack of curiosity about early treatments and reduction in availability of monoclonals. The childishness of the FDA calling ivermectin horse medicine etc. And finally threats to doctors’ licenses and censorship about folks who raise these concerns.

None of these engender trust. Nor should they.

MRNA will produce proteins, tha is the mechanism. ha is problem with tha ?
Do you know wats, have you noticed ? Infecion does not cause full immunity. immune tolerance is ? It means that immune system does not attack self proteins. Spike protein is not one.
Why do you think COVID Death cerificaes are incredibll sloppy ?
There are older people in university,like profs.
Ivermectin is horse medicine, because approved for horses

Oh FFS not ivermectin AGAIN. Get some new material.

Weinstein has jumped the shark. Ironically, he is what happens sometimes in higher education. A textbook case of the kind of thing people like you rail against. He’s saying bs you like so you’re blind to this obvious contradiction.

Weinstein has PhD syndrome. He thinks he knows everything about everything. Any of us who went through those halls have all met at least one. They’re the same idiots you hate who write papers saying “All white men are inherently, irreconcilably toxic.”

I listened to his bullshit on the Rogan show, ironically, as I was driving into the ICU one day in the throes of the pandemic. Everything he said was divorced from reality. Everything Koury said just proved he had never seen or managed a real COVID case. Anyone with even a modicum of real world clinical experience during covid knew it.

Hell, even Rogan didn’t buy their baloney.

But they said things a group of scared, confused, and frustrated people wanted to hear.

Oh, by the way-it’s isn’t just horse paste. I actually gave a patient a script the other day for it.

…for scabies.

I joked with him that he’s now permanently immune to covid.

In Sep 2021, the medicines regulator (Theraputic Goods Administration) in Australia directed that only a limited range of specialists may prescribe ivermectin for off-label use (anything other than scabies or some other parasitic diseases).

One of the reasons for the restriction was:

[T]here has been a 3-4-fold increased dispensing of ivermectin prescriptions in recent months, leading to national and local shortages for those who need the medicine for scabies and parasite infections. It is believed that this is due to recent prescribing and dispensing for unapproved uses, such as COVID-19.

https://www.tga.gov.au/news/media-releases/new-restrictions-prescribing-ivermectin-covid-19

I think it’s hilarious that y’all talk about ‘antivaxers’ as if they are all intellectually inferior and/or mentally unstable. I understand the vaccine industry is in a state of desperation these days, but that’s just silly–anyone can see that ‘antivaxers’ consist of regular people of all walks of life and all education levels–just like provaxers.

It would be just as wrong to lump all provaxers into the category of CWAC (Creature Without a Conscience). Some genuinely believe all vaccines are safe and effective and save lives, and they are heroes for pushing them–although it requires a monumental level of willful blindness.

I think it’s hilarious that y’all talk about ‘antivaxers’ as if they are all intellectually inferior and/or mentally unstable. I understand the vaccine industry is in a state of desperation these days, but that’s just silly–anyone can see that ‘antivaxers’ consist of regular people of all walks of life and all education levels–just like provaxers.

That description might apply to the vaccine-hesitant, but antivax leaders, the ones pushing the narratives that lead to vaccine hesitancy and sometimes antivaccine views, tend to be dishonest grifters. Think RFK Jr., Mike Adams, Joe Marcela, Peter McCullough, Pierre Kory, etc., etc., etc.

“although it requires a monumental level of willful blindness”

I would have characterised anti-vaxxers as ‘exaggerated idea of their own perspicacity’ but that works too.

…just ones who dedicate their every waking moment to an unhinged, nutty-as-squirrel-turd “research”…

Serendipitously, Mike Adams, today ( NN, 5 minutes in), recounts how a commenter thinks it’s impossible to know as much and do as much as Mike does. He assures his listeners that he and they indeed are not average but something far beyond that mediocrity.

Well, I’ve not witnessed any of these herkey-jerkeys personally. I have encountered a putrid smell.
The cable guy (DirecTv) was over to add a 4k box to dad’s tv. I woke up to the most horrendious stinkum — like death slathered in cologne. It penetrated the whole house right down to the blanket on the couch (afgan?). I aired the place out when he left even though it was cold out. The smell still reaches me. Dad said he did not pay it any notice (he did not say he did not smell it).

The thing is, A car passed me today and I smelled that same smell (minus the cologn). Am I smelling some infection?

I remembered the smell — a well-limed out-house (privey) of my grandfather’s from whem I was six years old. So, naturally, I pegged that guy as a serial killer living amongst the deadded. Please Help!!

Full disclosure: I rarely shower exept to get off dead skin. Nobody as ever said I smell save dad who, upon smelling my arm, said it was slightly vinnegary.) I have natural nitrifying bacteria wich converts ammonia, apperently. There is a product called Dirt Spray that claims to do the same thing.

Am I smelling some infection or serial killers??

Since I can’t see what I write, a recap is I smelled the same smell from a passing car.

Having some familial familiarity with seizures, those videos do not display any of the main characteristics of the seizures I am familiar with – particularly the being conscious and even articulate during the seizure.

Of course I am only an anecdote and not a professional in this area.

What is unfortunate is the way that quacks have cashed in on these people. Regardless of whether the cause of these seizures is biological or psychosomatic, quackery is not going to help and could even prolong the problem.

@ Ginny Stoner

From one paper: “Though excess deaths during the pandemic were primarily due to COVID-19, they also resulted from other causes. For example, actual deaths due to strokes during the pandemic were 7 percent higher than expected, and actual deaths from diabetes were 16 percent higher. Deaths due to external causes were particularly elevated relative to their expected levels, with a 16 percent increase in accident fatalities, a 29 percent increase in fatal drug overdoses, and a 27 percent increase in homicides”. National Bureau of Economic Research (2022 Mar). Excess Mortality during the COVID-19 Pandemic.

Here is another: “From April 2020 through at least the end of 2021, Americans died from non-Covid causes at an average annual rate 97,000 in excess of previous trends. Hypertension and heart disease deaths combined were elevated 32,000. Diabetes or obesity, drug-induced causes, and alcohol-induced causes were each elevated 12,000 to 15,000 above previous (upward) trends. Drug deaths especially followed an alarming trend, only to significantly exceed it during the pandemic to reach 108,000 for calendar year 2021. Homicide and motor-vehicle fatalities combined were elevated almost 10,000. Various other causes combined to add 18,000. While Covid deaths overwhelmingly afflict senior citizens, absolute numbers of non-Covid excess deaths are similar for each of the 18-44, 45-64, and over-65 age groups.” Casey B. Mulligan & Robert D. Arnott (2022 Jun). Non-Covid Excess Deaths, 2020-21: Collateral Damage of Policy Choices? National Bureau for Economic Research

And on Respectful Insolence’s sister blog:

“For the United States, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) estimates that excess deaths between the weeks ending March 7, 2020 and March 5, 2022 totaled 1,105,736, 15 percent more than the 958,864 official death toll from COVID-19 over that period.

That translates to 146,872 excess deaths not officially attributed to COVID-19 during that period. What are the causes of those unaccounted for excess deaths? Some of them are likely uncounted COVID deaths. Especially early on in the pandemic, death certificates often missed the role of COVID in some deaths. Overworked coroners often took families at their word when reporting the cause of death of a family member at home. By one estimate, COVID-19 deaths were underestimated by about 20% in the US.” Steven Novella (2022 Jul 20). Excess in Non-COVIDs: What are the true causes of the excess non-COVID deaths during the pandemic. Science-Based Medicine.

He then goes on to quote from the previous articles above.

I have more papers; but to sum it up:

Many with cancer, heart disease and other illnesses died because hospitals were overflowing with COVID patients and, treatment was delayed.
Drug deaths; e.g., opioids, alcohol, homicides, motor vehicle deaths increased significantly during the pandemic

You write: “What does my understanding of immunology, or of how vaccines work, or my anti-vax views, have to do with the CDC’s mortality data?”

Everything! First, you ignore the overwhelming data from around the world that those vaccinated had lower hospitalizations and deaths. Second, you ignore that vaccines don’t provide 100% protection. Third, you ignore data that those who got both the vaccines and the boosters had the lowest rates of hospitalizations and deaths. Fourth, you ignore that those vaccinated who were hospitalized and died were almost all very old and/or with severe comorbidities; yet, even data on these groups showed lower hospitalizations and deaths for those vaccinated.

Finally, data shows that the current hospitalizations and deaths are higher where percent of population unvaccinated and/or under vaccinated and/or where population ignores using masks, physical distancing, etc. Mass outbreaks in specific churches, packed with parishioners who were unvaccinated and not wearing masks, etc.

But more importantly, even if one could NOT account for every single excess death, you then assume could be vaccine and that is where your IMMENSE IGNORANCE of immunology plays the major role, besides your rigid unscientific bias against vaccines.

I suggest, for a start getting a copy and read: Lauren Sompayrac’s “How the Immune System Works (6th or 7th Edition)” I realize you won’t because you believe you are right without any understanding of immunology, so why waste your “valuable” time reading an immunology book, especially if you consciously or unconsciously worry it may end up with you having to admit you have been wrong and all the effort you put into your website was a waste of time.

And watch the new documentary: Virulent: The Vaccine Wars. Available to stream until January 28 for only $15. You will learn just how you fit in with all the other ignorant unscientific antivax idiots. You can access it at:

https://watch.showandtell.film/watch/virulentdocumentary

And Orac, myself and others have over and over explained why the increase in VAERS means little. There actually was a huge increase during 2008-9 H1N1; but with increases in antivax websites, with people reading idiots like you, there were more people assuming anything and everything they experienced after getting vaccines were caused by vaccine, Post Hoc Ergo Propter Hoc. And some indication that antivaxxers simply posted anonymously such claims, even if they had not experienced any adverse event after vaccinations or, more likely, even if they had NOT received a vaccine.

YOU JUST KEEP MAKING A FOOL OF YOURSELF

What caused the excess deaths from strokes, heart disease, diabetes, etc.? Accidents are often related to sudden medical emergencies, including car accidents and falls. Is that the reason for the increase?

You haven’t disputed the excess death data I have on the CVax Risk page on my site, so I assume you agree with it.

We are talking about a massive and unprecedented increase in deaths. And you think people should be satisfied with your ‘explanation’, or they’re ‘foolish’?

That doesn’t make sense, especially when we are dealing with a vaccine that’s only been out a couple years–some are even newer. It’s not even physically possible to know all there is to know about the health effects of those vaccines.

Aarno said “My question was: Did you make age adjusmens.”

I provide all the formulas I use on the page, although most of the page is simply showing people the VAERS vaccine injury data and the WONDER death data, and doesn’t involve any formulas at all.

All the calculations I use are basic ones, such as the number of serious adverse events compared to the number of vaccines (used to establish that the massive increase in VAERS reports is not due to more vaccination).

Also, Aarno, I looked through my CVax Risk page and I just don’t see anywhere where age-adjustments would even be appropriate. So tell me the section where you think they could or should be.

Okay Aarno I looked at this again and I think you are talking about the COVID19 vaccine risk estimates section. I added a statement there about age under the list of things the estimates don’t account for. Probably should have done that before so I guess have to grudgingly thank you.

What caused the excess deaths from strokes, heart disease, diabetes, etc.?

I actually wrote a blog post about one of the reasons in September 2021.

The refusal of antivaxxers to take the vaccines has seen thousands of them wind up in ICU’s around the World. And now, this has started to harm others.

Because there are so many people in ICU’s and hospital beds with COVID, hospitals have been forced to turn away patients as they have no room. And now people are dying.

https://autismjungle.wordpress.com/2021/09/19/such-utter-stupid/

I read you post. It’s solely an opinion piece, I assume you realize that. It contains no evidence whatsoever to support your premise that “The refusal of antivaxxers to take the vaccines has seen thousands of them wind up in ICU’s around the World.”

LOLOL. That’s the post where you conspiracy monger that somehow “age-adjusted” data are just a way for doctors to make it look as though the vaccinated do better, rather than a long-accepted data technique in epidemiology that’s been used for decades an decades when comparing populations.

Yeah, right, Orac–just because the age adjustments changed the result from from “vaccines very bad” to “vaccines very good” couldn’t possibly be cause for concern–so let’s not ask any questions. We all know that no monkey business ever happens when it comes to vaccines. That’s your LOLOL.

Thank you for demonstrating once again that you don’t know what you’re talking when it comes to epidemiology.

And you wonder why I don’t take you seriously. You don’t even know what you don’t know, but, worse, you’re unwilling to learn.

Orac said, “Thank you for demonstrating once again that you don’t know what you’re talking when it comes to epidemiology.”

How so? Are you claiming there is no discretion with regard to age adjustments? Because there is. Or are you claiming there is discretion, but the CDC would never abuse it? LOLOL.

If you think that the CDC somehow “abused” age-adjustment, then it is incumbent upon you to show how the method the CDC used to age-adjust its mortality statistics was not just inappropriate from a scientific and epidemiological standpoint, but purposely chosen to make the vaccine look better.

I predict that I will wait long for any serious (or even serious-seeming) attempt from you to do this. You just conspiracy monger, but can’t back up your insinuations. Again, and you wonder why no one takes you seriously around here other than other antivax conspiracy mongers?

Orac, the first step is to see whether there is any reason to suspect possible statistical shenanigans. I just did the first step. I never claimed there WAS shenanigans–I was just investigating whether it might be worth investigating. If you don’t think it is, tell me why. I wrote:

“Age adjustments in statistics have been around a long time and are an accepted practice. But that doesn’t mean the specific age adjustments used by the CDC and the ONS were legitimate. To determine that, we need more information, such as what age groups they used, the expected death rate they assigned to each, the formulas they used, etc.”

This data is not available without a FOIA request, as far as I can tell. Do you have it?

If you’re so convinced that there’s something “worth investigating” here, then what are you waiting for? Get to work on that FOIA request!

It’s not up to me to assist you “proving” your conspiracy theories about the CDC and its use of age-adjusted numbers.🙄

I am beginning to wonder whether Ginny is just a piece of performance art. All the arguments on this thread are identical to arguments made on other threads where she was provided with data showing her arguments were wrong.

Yet here we are with the same wrong arguments recycled.

MedicalYeti is claiming the unvaxed “died suddenly.” MedicalYeti was recently on this blog ridiculing people who were claiming the vaxed “died suddenly”. A great illustration of hypocrisy.

Jeebus Hairy Christ you are DUMB! I was ridiculing the insinuation that people were suddenly dying from the vax not covid. Uuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuugh

Oh, and “tone policing” again like others have said

Uuuuuuuuuuuuuuiiuiiiiuugh

@Ginny Stoner do you know that here is a higher mortality among older people ? So here are more deahs in a group of older people. Vaccinated is one. Where is monkey business here ?

Aarno said “do you know that here is a higher mortality among older people ?”

AGAIN, you comment without even looking at the page. How can people do this so much and think people won’t notice? This is one of the reasons why the vaccine industry is in such dire straights.

This data is not available without a FOIA request, as far as I can tell. Do you have it?

It took me 30 seconds to find an introduction for you, Gindo. Thirty seconds (PDF).

And yes, the same reference population is still in use.

Narad said, “It took me 30 seconds to find an introduction for you, Gindo. Thirty seconds (PDF).”

Narad’s link said, “This report describes several sets of age-adjustment weights, based on the year 2000 projected U.S. population, that were used to generate age-adjusted baseline data for a number of Healthy People 2010 objectives.”

What makes you think this applies to the CDC’s vaccinated vs. unvaccinated mortality data in 2022? You should have spent more than 30 seconds and figured that out before acting like an ass.

Right, Narad–we should rely on a 20+ year old paper about age adjustments, and I guess, assume they were done the same way in 2022, using the same numbers and formulas in an entirely different context. Because, vaccines.

A continuity correction assumed at ≥5% of each age group and jurisdiction would always be unvaccinated (i.e., fully vaccinated coverage ≤95%). Average weekly incidences were calculated by age group (18–49, 50–64, and ≥65 years), vaccination status, and primary series vaccine product (Ad.26.COV2.S [Janssen {Johnson & Johnson}], BNT162b2 [Pfizer-BioNTech], and mRNA-1273 [Moderna]) during each period; rates overall and by vaccine product were age-standardized using the 2000 U.S. Census standard population.¶¶

COVID-19 Incidence and Death Rates Among Unvaccinated and Fully Vaccinated Adults with and Without Booster Doses During Periods of Delta and Omicron Variant Emergence — 25 U.S. Jurisdictions, April 4–December 25, 2021

It was sitting in front of you the whole time. (And I had this yesterday but left it as an exercise. Silly me. :roll:)

Right, Narad–we should rely on a 20+ year old paper about age adjustments

Did you even follow the link that your miserable ass was provided? Those entries are plainly quite current. IIRC, it’s standardized across HHS, but I’m noot going to waste any more time on perfectly elastic collisions with your head.

“What caused the excess deaths from strokes, heart disease, diabetes, etc.?”

You really need to pay attention Ginny. During the pandemic, when the health services were stretched, people weren’t being diagnosed with heart problems, blood pressure problems etc, in the same quantities as pre-pandemic. Same for diabetes. Partly due to hospitals and doctors having longer waiting lists but also because people were staying away, if they could, for multiple reasons (e.g. public health measures, the desire to avoid overloading health care and fear of infection).

This is already known by the health services. Seems to be news to you though. Look at the causes you picked. Every single one of them has better outcomes with earlier detection. Worse outcomes if left uncontrolled.

Yeah. That too but it seems that anti-vaxxers find it convenient to ignore the secondary effects of the pandemic. Makes their figures look better if they don’t take all the pandemic collateral damage out of the equation.

@ Ginny Stoner

A few more papers on excess deaths during pandemic due to delays in cancer screening, etc:

Julie M. Vose (2020 Sep 15). Delay in Cancer Screening and Diagnosis During the COVID-19 Pandemic – What Is the Cost?. Oncology. CANCERNETWORK.COM

MacKenzie Mayo, MD; Bindu Potugari, MD; Rami Bzeih, DO; Caleb Scheidel, MS; Carolyn Carrera, MD; and Richard A. Shellenberger, DO(2021 Dec). Cancer Screening During the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis. MAYO Clinic.

@ Ginny Stoner

First, despite your immense ignorance, science knows how mRNA vaccines work and we have had over two years of follow-up. And you are nuts when it comes to refusing to understand the reasons for the excess deaths. It is worthless to respond to someone who refuses to even consider she is wrong. You are locked into your unscientific, intellectually dishonest antivax beliefs and you refuse to even attempt to understand immunology, the basis of vaccinology.

In other words, YOU ARE FULL OF SHIT.

Two years of followup…which included many indications of danger from the vaccines. You’re claiming there’s no possibility the vaccines have caused or contributed to any of the 1.6 million excess deaths in the US in the past 2 years–and you’re just flat-out making that up. You’re a CWAC.

Orac there’s nothing sad about my blog. I spend many, many hours creating charts that clearly illustrate VAERS data, mortality rates, and other official data kept by government.

My CVax Risk page, in particular, is intentionally designed to be totally opinion-free–the page is exclusively to tell people what the numbers are, with no pro- or anti-vax fluff thrown in.

You won’t find any pro-vax pages like it–because they don’t want clarity about the data. Of course I want more people to see it.

I do not know nothing is not an analysis. Notes on the first page say that deahs are based on death certificates. UK does have a vaccination registry.

I spend many, many hours creating charts that clearly illustrate VAERS data, mortality rates, and other official data kept by government.

An appropriate analogy seems to be “dungeon master with no players in sight.”

@ Ginny Stoner

First, in previous comments a while back I said it is always possible, given genetic diversity, epigenetics, toxins, etc. that a minuscule number of people could have died from the vaccine. I repeat, possible that a minuscule number of people died from the vaccine; however, there is currently NO credible scientific evidence supporting this; but even if eventually science does find a MINUSCULE number died from the vaccine, the world-wide stats of over two years finds the vaccine saved many millions of lives. As I’ve written before, smallpox epidemics killed 25% or more of a population. The vaccine saved ALL of them; however, it killed 1 or 2 per million vaccinated, so 250,000 saved vs 1 – 2 died. Of course, in your sick warped mind we should have stopped smallpox vaccinations to save the 1 or 2. It is you who are a Creature Without Conscience. You really are dishonest. You asked me for stats on other deaths excess deaths during pandemic, so I found them. Didn’t affect your position one iota. Nothing will because you live in your own sick warped world.

And by the way, when they were alive I made sure my grandparents and parents, who I loved dearly, got flu vaccines, etc. And my friends. And I have gotten ALL the COVID vaccines.

I repeat for the umpteenth time that you don’t understand immunology, thus you don’t even understand how and why vaccines work. You don’t understand viruses. You don’t understand epidemiology. You claim that many antivaxxers are quite intelligent. Intelligence has nothing to do with it. If someone gave me several plans for building a bridge over a river, I couldn’t choose which is best because I have NEVER studied structural engineering. So, being highly educated and intelligent would have nothing to do with it.

And by the way, the current excess deaths is not the first time. In 1918-19 with a population of less than 1/3 current killed 675,000, thus over twice current COVID deaths

YOU JUST KEEP MAKING A FOOL OF YOURSELF

.

“I said it is always possible, given genetic diversity, epigenetics, toxins, etc. that a minuscule number of people could have died from the vaccine.”

Guess what? Given the massive increase in mortality (and VAERS reports), it’s always possible that a LARGE number of people could have died and been otherwise seriously harmed from the vaccine.

You’re acting as if you have definitive knowledge that the COVID19 vaccines are safe and effective. You don’t. Maybe you’re lying to yourself, although I doubt it, but there is no way you have that knowledge, because it doesn’t exist.

Guess what? Given the massive increase in mortality (and VAERS reports), it’s always possible that a LARGE number of people could have died and been otherwise seriously harmed from the vaccine.

Actually, no it isn’t. Pharmacovigilance systems show that quite clearly. COVID vaccines are very safe and, although no longer as effective as they once were before Omicron, still quite effective at preventing severe disease.

First it is actually years, and this refers to attentuated vaccines,a uitee differen hing.

She won’t. She’ll just point to her blog posts, in which she makes errors and misinterpretations that even a first year public health, epidemiology, or statistics student would not.

And yet you have never pointed out a single one of these alleged errors. You laugh at the idea that my CVax Risk page is just an objective explanation of the official data from WONDER and VAERS (which is IS) yet you can’t provide a single example to support your case.

You’re full of denigrating generalizations about me, but way short on evidence.

@Ginny Stoner You have been told multiple times thatnVAERS data do not prove causation, as CDC itself says. Real risk analysis will go further,

Aarno, I HAVE NEVER SAID VAERS REPORTS PROVE CAUSATION. In fact, my page on that issue reminds people of that about a dozen times in text, notes and images. After all this time, and many, many comments about it, you’ve never even looked at the page you are criticizing. You can’t make stuff like this up.

Oh please. Antivaxxers love to have plausible deniability by adding a disclaimer, but in context your intent is very clear, particularly in light of your comments on this blog.

@ Ginny Stoner

Fauci was specifically talking about developing a vaccine against AIDS. AIDS is very different from the viruses that vaccines are developed for. I won’t go into the details because I realize you will ignore. And we still don’t have a vaccine for AIDS. Why? Because HIV mutates at rates far greater than other viruses, so they are trying to develop a vaccine that will target conserved parts of the virus. Unfortunately, conserved parts are not visible at the surface. I’m sure you could care less; but as Orac, myself, and others have written, since 1960s when mRNA was discovered there are more than 400,000 papers on mRNA prior to the pandemic and over 70 since the 1990s on developing mRNA vaccines. The mRNA vaccines, Pfizer and Moderna carried out all phases of required FDA clinical trials, with phase 3 involving 30 – 40,000 and they have continued follow-ups for over two years now. A few rare cases of myocarditis did occur after the vaccines; but on follow-up did quite well. [CDC (2022 Sep 27). Myocarditis and Pericarditis After mRNA COVID-19 Vaccination]; however, far more cases were caused by the actual virus [e.g., Tegan K Boehmer et al (2021 Sep 3). Association Between COVID-19 and Myocarditis Using Hospital-Based Administrative Data — United States, March 2020–January 2021. MMWR]

I realize you will ignore this; but my comments are not intended to influence an absolute moron like you; but to give info to others following this blog that they can use in the future.

And you keep on using VAERS despite several well-written papers by Orac, numerous comments by me, etc that VAERS does NOT represent any type of causal argument. I would bet that if you were a prosecutor who got a conviction that despite any and all new evidence of innocence you would fight to keep in jail. And I would bet that if police, after a vicious crime, brought in a dozen or more suspects for questioning that you would want to skip a trial and throw all of them in prison.

@ Ginny Stoner

You write: “You’re acting as if you have definitive knowledge that the COVID19 vaccines are safe and effective. You don’t. Maybe you’re lying to yourself, although I doubt it, but there is no way you have that knowledge, because it doesn’t exist.”

BULL SHIT. We have definite knowledge based on understanding mRNA, based on extensive testing of the mRNA vaccines on large groups, based on follow-ups over several years, based on overwhelming international data on lives saved, vaccinated compared to unvaccinated. And, as I wrote, minuscule risk possible; but so far none found. It is you who are lying to yourself based on your rigid biased unscientific antivax position. And I suggested you read an inexpensive book; but I know you won’t; but here it is again: Lauren Sompayrac’s “How the Immune System Works.”

We have had three dangerous corona virus variants over the past two decades. There exists the possibility of a fourth variant that possibly could be both more transmissible and more deadly. A possibility, not a certainty; but understanding how RNA viruses mutate and the immense number of corona viruses whose genomes have been sequenced, a reasonable possibility. Though I hope it won’t happen, I wonder if even after several million deaths mainly among unvaccinated you would admit you are wrong. I doubt it. Note even if a variant is quite mutated, chances are that those vaccinated will still be somewhat protected against severe illness, hospitalization, and death, called cross-immunity.

@ Ginny Stoner

You write: “Where did this newfound vaccine recklessness come from? It’s totally in conflict with Fauci’s views 20 years ago, that vaccine safety takes a decade or more to establish.”

The very short cut of Fauci’s testimony is on developing an AIDS/HIV vaccine. First, whoever posted it is just as extremely dishonest as you. I could take any book, any testimony, etc. and cut to just a very short section to prove anything.

In an 2008 article in Scientific American Fauci said: “I think all of those predictions of time frames really reflect an innocent but unintentional lack of appreciation for how unique and different HIV is. When you’re setting out to develop a vaccine, you generally use natural infection as your model, or, put a different way, as your experiment of nature. Regardless of what microbe or virus you’re dealing with—even the deadly ones like smallpox and the maiming ones like measles and polio—the majority of people, and sometimes the overwhelmingly vast majority of people, may get sick and then ultimately get better. They don’t die and they
don’t have any lasting remnants of the infection. What happens is that the body adequately and appropriately ultimately eliminates the virus and provides you with lasting protection against subsequent challenges [from that virus]. But, the body’s natural response is different with HIV? Astoundingly, of the tens of millions of people who have been infected, there’s not a single documented case of someone who has established infection and ultimately eradicates the virus from the body.” [Nikhil Swaminathan (2008 Jul 28). NIH Official: HIV Vaccine Research “Swimming in the Dark”. Scientific American.]

I challenge you to read the article, available for free online. Just to make clear, the purpose of a vaccine is to prepare the immune system to stop or weaken an intruder before the intruder can do damage; but if the immune system can’t do this, then a vaccine can’t be made.

@ EVERYONE

Ginny Stoner posted a link to a very short cut of Anthony Fauci testimony before Congress.

https://twitter.com/ThePrinceFrog/status/1615747416141058051

I’ve tried numerous search strategies; but couldn’t find the actual testimony. It has to be out there since an antivaxxer used it to make the short cut version. If anyone can find the actual testimony, please give link in a comment.

Thanks

@ Ginny Stoner

First, I do not work for anyone, nor receive any money. Typical of you. You don’t try to address what I actually wrote; but attempt a dishonest ad hominem attack. Second, you ignore that I pointed out clearly that you found an extremely dishonest antivax cut of Fauci’s testimony. Anyone can cut very small segments from books, testimonies, etc. which is just plain dishonest.

So, I repeat: I do not work for anyone, nor receive any money. Typical of you. You don’t try to address what I actually wrote; but attempt a dishonest ad hominem attack.

YOU ARE AN EXTREMELY DISHONEST STUPID PERSON! ! !

Nearly everything you write in response to me, and anyone else who disputes the vaccine paradigm, is verbose misdirection and obfuscation to promote vaccines and other pharmaceutical products. You ignore direct questions. You act like a school child, calling me ridiculous insulting names over and over. The way you act dictates the degree of respect your comments deserve, and it’s not much.

@ Ginny Stoner

Yu write: “You ignore direct questions.”

You are either extremely mentally disturbed or just a plane liar as I have numerous times directly addressed what you wrote, often including both quotes followed by detailed references so you could check them out.

Just one example: You linked to a very short soundbite of Fauci addressing Congress about not being able to check the effectiveness or safety of a vaccine for many years; but you ignored that he was speaking ONLY ABOUT HIV VACCINES and you ignored that I then cited him explaining why in an article from Scientific American, namely that since our immune systems don’t fight off HIV, then vaccines designed to prepare our immune systems won’t work.

And you continue to base everything on VAERS which Orac has written several pieces on and I have given detailed comments why one cannot use VAERS to determine causation, You ignore this. I suggest you check out the CDCs Vaccine Safety Datalink, which is connected to medical records of around 11 million people, including age, gender, comorbidities, vaccines given (lot number, data, amount), and any medical visits afterwards to look for adverse events.

YOU ARE A DISHONEST LYING MORON

Yep, I call you names because they accurately describe you

You’ve GOT to be a bot.

Can you imagine talking the way you routinely do to me, to someone you were standing in line with at the post office? You’d probably have half the line jumping to the defense of the woman you were shouting “LYING MORON” at, for no apparent reason (that is, she wasn’t doing it to you).

No real human in a reasonably normal state of mind acts like you in real life. Not that I’ve ever seen, anyway.

Check my comments to Joel on the Skidmore thread.
The video seems to be from an international vaccine conference in 1998. Nova clipped that one tiny bit, probably because it showed how long the vaccine development process might take.
I haven’t been able to find any more video from the conference online.

@ Ginny Stoner

How is directly showing your immense dishonesty in referring to a short soundbite by giving what Fauci actually said “verbose misdirection and obfuscation to promote vaccines?”

I guess in your sick warped stupid mind anything that refutes your comments with science and logicians accuracy is “verbose misdirection and obfuscation to promote vaccines.” As I’ve said accurately over and over “YOU ARE STUPIDLY DISHONEST! ! !”

You’re the one claiming a safe and effective vaccine can be developed in less than year. That’s an unprecedented claim, as the principle Fauci stated–that vaccine development takes a decade or more–was pretty much universal pre-COVID19.

You’re the one who has the burden of proving your unprecedented claim–if it were possible. Obviously, it isn’t, since it would be physically impossible to know the long-term adverse effects in a year or 2.

@ Ginny Stoner

You write: “You’re the one claiming a safe and effective vaccine can be developed in less than year. That’s an unprecedented claim, as the principle Fauci stated–that vaccine development takes a decade or more–was pretty much universal pre-COVID19.”

Just how stupid are you? I explained that Fauci was explaining that since our immune systems don’t work against HIV then a vaccine against HIV would be extremely difficult to develop; but our immune systems do work against many other microbes. I explained this and you ignore it. And you are really ignorant of history of vaccines. For instance, the Salk polio vaccine took much less than a decade to develop. And you are TOTALLY STUPID when it comes to current mRNA COVID vaccines. As I wrote a while back, since discovery of mRNA in 1960s there have been over 400,000 papers on mRNA and since 1990s over 70 research papers on mRNA vaccines both prior to current pandemic. And you ignore that the current vaccines went through ALL stages of FDA requirements, animal studies, Phase 1, 2, 3 and phase 3 had between 30,000 and 40,000 subjects and we now have over two years follow-up. So, it isn’t me “claiming a safe and effective vaccine can be developed in less than a year”, it is science.

And you are totally ignorant of how science advances. We how have tools for sequencing genomes of microbes in a couple of days. Science has advanced. You want to believe that science, including development of vaccines, has not changed in past 50 years. You do realize that the internet which you use to display your immense ignorance is fairly recent. Perhaps, it would be best if you stopped using it and hand write letters to the editor of newspapers.

You write: “You’re the one who has the burden of proving your unprecedented claim–if it were possible. Obviously, it isn’t, since it would be physically impossible to know the long-term adverse effects in a year or 2.”

NOPE. There is NO credible scientific evidence of long-term adverse effects unless first seen within less than two months. So, if we were to go by your unscientific ignorant approach, we would have to wait another 7 – 8 years for the COVID vaccines and the number dead would be millions more. The burden of proof is on you. Give a detailed reference list of any severe adverse events that occurred more than two months after a vaccine where NO signs occurred within the first couple of months.

I suggested you read one book on immunology; but you won’t. I have read a half dozen. And I have read and own several shelves of books on histories of various vaccine-preventable diseases, plus literally thousands of medical journal articles. How many have you read? In fact, I have downloaded and read well over a 1,000 articles on COVID-19 just since start of pandemic. How many have you read?

And I repeat, it is evidence of your intellectual stupidity and dishonesty that you found a short soundbite of Fauci and referred to it. As I explained, one can take anything out of context to prove anything. YOU ARE EXTREMELY DISHONEST.

JUST HOW STUPID ARE YOU? YOU KEEP MAKING A FOOL OF YOURSELF

To summarize, you believe that a new vaccines can be confirmed to be free of dangerous side effects–even long-term side effects that would ordinarily take a decade to manifest–within a mere year or 2.

Interesting theory–one that obviously every pharma executive and captured government regulator in the world ‘believes’ as much as you do.

Again, what is the latest after vaccination that a documented adverse event has ever been observed? (I have discussed this before, as has Dorit.)

It’s a challenge question which Ginny dodges by trying to turn it into a “prove a negative” response before going back to her favorite source VAERS. If she tried to up her game by going on to the actual research literature, she might convince someone that she actually knew something.

But for the lurkers, this request for long-term safety proof is an old standby of commenters like Ginny. The current knowledge as stated by professionals like Dr Fauci and Dr Offit is that, to date, every condition that has been determined to be an adverse effect of a vaccine, not just an event that happened after vaccination, has been recognized either during Phase 3 testing or in the first 6 weeks – 2 months after the start of mass administration. This includes Covid-19 vaccine concerns like myocarditis and CVST and even POTS which new research shows may be a low risk effect. It also includes things like vaccine-caused polio, GBS from flu vaccines, and several other cases.

So the challenge for Ginny is, show that we are wrong by citing a counter-example that was not detected until later than two months. No commenter has successfully answered that.

Ginny hasn’t done it this time, but commenters often pivot to talking about adverse effects from drugs.

A single dose of the Pfizer vaccine only contains 30 micrograms of mRNA. Moderna has 100 micrograms. You get one dose followed by a second dose a month later and then maybe a booster 4 months to a year later. When I took my morning medicine today, I ingested 1.5 grams or 1,500,000 micrograms! That is a lot more chemicals than in any vaccine. And I take that twice a day every day, probably for the rest of my life.

The ingredients in a vaccine are biodegraded in a few days and practically all flushed out of the body in a couple months. There is nothing left to cause long-term harm other than the changes in the immune system.

Whereas, I have days, weeks, months and years for tiny chemical poisoning effects to accumulate in my body and eventually perhaps cause harm.

So this is a false equivalence.

The bottom line is that these vaccines are extremely safe. Even naysayers like Prasad have acknowledged that.

And the hybrid protection from vaccinating most of the population combined with the immune response to breakthrough infections has made this winter’s Covid-19 season much less severe than the previous two years.

We’re still running 500 deaths a day, so there is much work to be done.

“The bottom line is that these vaccines are extremely safe.”

Just keep saying that–sandwiched in between several paragraphs of condescending, deceptive blather, it almost sounds like you know what you’re taking about.

Not a data point to be found anywhere, but for God’s sake, don’t look for any on Ginny’s blog.

I’ve notice, by looking at my “favorite” (and only) publicly available data source on vaccine injury reports, VAERS, that more deaths have been reported from COVID19 vaccines just in the first 3 weeks of January this year, than were typically reported from all other vaccines in an entire year, from 1999-2020. I suppose, like 99% of the population, you probably weren’t aware of it.

@ Ginny Stoner

You write: “You’re the one claiming a safe and effective vaccine can be developed in less than year.”

What you fail in your immense ignorance to understand is that whether it takes 10 years or 1 year to develop a vaccine that once developed it must go through the same FDA required tests: Animal studies, Phase 1, Phase 2, and Phase 3 and after Phase 3 when approved by FDA must continue follow-up. So, it really doesn’t matter how fast vaccine developed as once developed must go through same requirements by FDA to be approved. And the current mRNA vaccines have done just that.

And, in your immense ignorance you assume that science, including vaccine development, never progresses. Well, my first computer had 128 k memory and a half height drive. To simply use a word processor I had to use three different discs which I exchanged in the half height drive. Have you noticed that computer technology has advanced incredibly? And when I was young we couldn’t sequence genomes, then could but took months, now only a couple of days. Science progresses; but your biased ignorance doesn’t.

So, I repeat that it isn’t how long it takes to develop a vaccine or any other medical product because once developed the FDA requires the same tests. And, actually FDA requirements for vaccines is much much higher than other medical products, including much much larger sample sizes and several different adverse events follow-up programs, the best one is the Vaccine Safety Datalink. And you also ignore in your immense biased stupidity that many other nations have their own testing and adverse events reporting systems, most included at the WHO.

JUST KEEP MAKING A FOOL OF YOURSELF

Here are the onset intervals for serious events only reported to VAERS from COVID19 vaccines.

0 days 9,704 9.78%
1 day 8,146 8.21%
2 days 4,056 4.09%
3 days 3,060 3.09%
4 days 2,032 2.05%
5 days 1,656 1.67%
6 days 1,332 1.34%
7 days 1,762 1.78%
8 days 1,175 1.18%
9 days 1,071 1.08%
10-14 days 4,953 4.99%
15-30 days 9,327 9.40%
31-60 days 6,708 6.76%
61-120 days 6,799 6.85%
Over 120 days 30,258 30.51%
Unknown 7,147 7.21%
Total 99,186 100.00%

VAERS does not demonstrate that the vaccine caused it; so it is not an appropriate dataset to answer the question.

If it’s not the data you wanted, then post the data you wanted. Is this some kind of game? The salient point is that you’re claiming long-term vaccine safety can be established in a year or 2, so I don’t even know what it is you’re intending to prove here.

@Ginny Soner Actually, Orac asked you to submit acceptable data. So do it.

The salient point is that the very data you’re citing have proven safety in two years. I promise you one of those entires in your data set is something like “82 y/o female got vaccine, slipped on banana peel in parking lot, hip and odontoid fracture, died two days later.”

The VAERS data are positively loaded with events like that. Did you exclude those? Would you even have the clinical judgement to know how?

Yeti said:”I promise you one of those entires in your data set is something like “82 y/o female got vaccine, slipped on banana peel in parking lot, hip and odontoid fracture, died two days later.”

“The VAERS data are positively loaded with events like that.”

Oh, sure!. I’ve heard doctors in particular really go out of their way to report banana peel slip-and-falls. Sure, only a “small fraction” of vaccine injuries are ever reported to VAERS at all–according to VAERS–but I think it’s safe to assume that a lot of that small fraction is composed of doctors and patients eager for opportunities to report slip-and-falls for no apparent reason, no compensation and no reward whatsoever, except personal satisfaction.

I remember my first computers as well. First a ZX Spectrum, don’t know how much memory. The first computer I could really use was a Commodore Amiga 512 k memory I think.
My current computer? 16 g
Yes, we’ve come a long way.

I had the 48K Spectrum. Very fond memories of Manic Miner and Way of the Exploding Fist. Plus laboriously typing in and then debugging programs from computer magazines. Unfortunately I destroyed the Spectrum while trying to fix the damaged plug on the printer…..while it was plugged in.

I still have my ZX Spectrum lying around somewhere. Hated the keyboard and programming, where one had to press 3 keys at the same time, which often went wrong, because those membrame switches were sensitive.

Goodness! Find it, clean it and frame it. 😀

Don’t try to use it though. It will only disappoint. Like playing Tomb Raider from the original PS after playing the reboots on PS4.

I still keep an old 5 1/4 floppy drive and disk around to show the kids what I had to deal with…I can’t imagine what future grandkids will think of that stuff! Haha

@ Ginny Stoner

You wrote: “It’s totally in conflict with Fauci’s views 20 years ago, that vaccine safety takes a decade or more to establish.”

And I pointed out that Fauci was only speaking about a vaccine for AIDs because our immune systems don’t defeat it, thus, vaccines that are designed to alert our immune systems wouldn’t work. Again, he was only speaking about an AIDs vaccine; however, even vaccine trials as far back as the 1950s to far less time than a decade.

“The first effective polio vaccine was developed in 1952 by Dr. Salk at the University of Pittsburgh, but it would require years of testing. Beginning on that February day, the vaccine was tested at Arsenal and the Watson Home for Children, also in Pittsburgh. Salk’s vaccine was then used in a test called the Francis Field Trial, led by Thomas Francis, which was at the time the largest medical experiment in history. The test began with some 4,000 children at Franklin Sherman Elementary School in McLean, VA and would eventually involve 1.8 million children in 44 states. Thousands of health care professionals and other volunteers administered the vaccine and collected results. By the conclusion of the study, roughly 440,000 received one or more injections of the vaccine, about 210,000 children received a placebo, consisting of harmless culture media, and 1.2 million children received no vaccination and served as a control group, who would then be observed to see if any contracted polio. The results of the field trial were announced on April 12, 1955”
[Gil Ross (2016, Feb 23). 62 Years Ago: First Mass Trials Of The Salk Polio Vaccine. American Council on Science and Health]

So, do note that from 1952 to 1955 is only three years, not a decade. And, as I explained, science doesn’t stay static; but develops into more effective and more efficient procedures for many things, including vaccines.

But, as usual, you in your immense scientific ignorance, antivax bias, and stupidity will ignore the above.

“And I pointed out that Fauci was only speaking about a vaccine for AIDs…”

I think you’re wrong. Fauci appears to be making a generalization about vaccine development, based on past experience. Obviously anyone watching it can decide for themselves.

Could you please link to a full video of his presentation at that conference or perhaps the published conference proceedings?

Without something like that, we are just speculating based on one snippet with no context.

I don’t really care what Fauci has to say–he’s a CWAC, and corrupt to the core. I just posted the clip for people who might care, and if they’re committed to a Fauci who doesn’t believe vaccine development in general takes a decade or more, they can look for a clip of Fauci saying the COVID19 vaccines are safe and effective–surely there’s a wide selection of them.

@ Ginny Stoner

You write: “I just posted the clip for people who might care”

So, you continue to ignore that short clips are dishonest because they can be taken out of context; but, of course, you are DISHONEST TO THE CORE.

Fauci is an MD with Board Certification in Immunology based on several years advanced training. So, he understands vaccines, something you don’t and something you refuse to even consider.

YOU ARE A BIASED IGNORANT STUPID ANTIVAXXER.

Why don’t you get a copy of Lauren Sompayrac’s “How the Immune System Works”. Why, because you don’t want to actually learn something that may counter your biased ignorance.

Fauci spoke about HIV vaccine, not vacines in general. You of course did not read squirrelite’s links

I may add that the activation of the immune system activates HIV. This is very unique CATCH 22.
In addition, developing AIDS takes time,so proving that the vaccine prevents takes time, too.

@ Aarno Syvänen

You write: “developing AIDS takes time,so proving that the vaccine prevents takes time, too.”

Prior to Fauci’s Congressional Testimony studies of AIDS had already found that when first infected the immune system did react and lower substantially amount of HIV in blood; but didn’t eliminate. Then found not only how rapidly HIV mutated; but how it had already invaded T helper cells (coaches of immune system) and also how it could even steer T helper cells to attach to neighboring T helper cells in order to infect them, thus evading immune system. So, how long it took to develop full-blown AIDS irrelevant.

NOTE. once T helper cells below certain level, 400, doesn’t automatically lead to AIDS. One still has to then be infected with some microbe, so I actually years ago met some people who bragged they had lower than 400 and were fine; but follow-up months later and guess what???

One was Christine Maggiori. Actually met twice and had coffee with. Nice lady; but refused anti-retrovirals, lost newborn to AIDS and then months later died of AIDS herself. She even gave me free copy of book she had written, which I, of course, read. Still have book, on shelf with other antivax, unscientific books.

I referred to basic RCT endpoint “vaccine prevents AIDS”. Of course secondary endpoints are acceptable in this case.

@ Ginny Stoner

You write: ““And I pointed out that Fauci was only speaking about a vaccine for AIDs…” I think you’re wrong. Fauci appears to be making a generalization about vaccine development, based on past experience. Obviously anyone watching it can decide for themselves.”

I actually found a couple more cuts of Fauci’s testimony which included mention of AIDS and you, in your immense stupid dishonesty ignore that I also quoted Fauci from an article in Scientific American where he repeated what he said about time to develop specifically an AIDS vaccine and why.

YOU MAY BE THE MOST DISHONESTY LYING STUPID PERSON WHO HAS EVER POSTED ON THIS BLOG OR AT LEAST A RUNNER-UP

YOU ARE AN EXTREMELY SICK INDIVIDUAL

@ Ginny Stoner

You write: “Now at least I know for sure that some thing thinks so.”

Actually, not “some” but anyone who understands science, including immunology and actually I am just one of several commenters who think as I do.

My picks for greatest dishonesty are commenters who continually JAQ off about imagined vaccine hazards while pretending they’re greatly offended at being viewed as antivaxers. They also contribute a heaping helping of pearl-clutching angst about negative tone.

Ginny’s brand of disinformation is more direct, though she does score highly on measures of foolish malevolence.

You posted no examples of my alleged “foolish malevolence” because you have none, you porky POS. At least I post data, and manage to act civil about it in a den of hissing vipers. All you ever post is your obnoxious porky POS opinion.

@ Ginny Stoner

You ignore the fact that anyone can cut and paste extremely short soundbites to prove any point. A totally dishonest approach.

You found one soundbite. Here are two more from Fauci’s Congressional Testimony that make it clear Fauci was talking about AIDS:

Dr. Fauci ‘it takes 12 yrs’ [Feb 1999 | Surviving Aids]
[https://ugetube.com/watch/dr-fauci-039-it-takes-12-yrs-039-feb-1999-surviving-aids_pGdTcsdQ9DfYaDs.html]

Fauci discussing AIDS vaccine in 1999, “…well now let’s give it thousands of people and then you find out it takes 12 years for all hell to break loose and then what have you done?”
[https://www.reddit.com/r/walkaway/comments/w7vxb9/fauci_discussing_aids_vaccine_in_1999_well_now/]

Yet, I would NEVER rely on such short soundbites. And I repeat what Fauci said in Scientific American article. Read it you dishonest lowlife:

In an 2008 article in Scientific American Fauci said: “I think all of those predictions of time frames really reflect an innocent but unintentional lack of appreciation for how unique and different HIV is. When you’re setting out to develop a vaccine, you generally use natural infection as your model, or, put a different way, as your experiment of nature. Regardless of what microbe or virus you’re dealing with—even the deadly ones like smallpox and the maiming ones like measles and polio—the majority of people, and sometimes the overwhelmingly vast majority of people, may get sick and then ultimately get better. They don’t die and they don’t have any lasting remnants of the infection. What happens is that the body adequately and appropriately ultimately eliminates the virus and provides you with lasting protection against subsequent challenges [from that virus]. But, the body’s natural response is different with HIV? Astoundingly, of the tens of millions of people who have been infected, there’s not a single documented case of someone who has established infection and ultimately eradicates the virus from the body.” [Nikhil Swaminathan (2008 Jul 28). NIH Official: HIV Vaccine Research “Swimming in the Dark”. Scientific American.]

I challenge you to read the article, available for free online. Just to make clear, the purpose of a vaccine is to prepare the immune system to stop or weaken an intruder before the intruder can do damage; but if the immune system can’t do this, then a vaccine can’t be made.

YOU ARE ONE OF THE MOSTLY STUPIDLY DISHONEST COMMENTERS EVER ON THIS BLOG

I seem to have upset Joel A. Harrison, PhD, MPH, by posting a link to a Fauci blurb that’s going around the web these days. Oh, dear.

“I would NEVER rely on such short soundbites!” he exclaimed, outraged at the suggestion, which was apparently made by the voices in his head.

Good rule of thumb: “Relied on” is a phase that should never be used in the same sentence as “Fauci”–unless it’s preceded by “only fools have.”

@ Ginny Stoner

Only your ignorant stupid antivax position ignores that Fauci is highly qualified and has devoted his life to protecting the public, something you are too stupid to understand.

@ Ginny Stoner

A search of the National Library of Medicine’s database PubMed using Anthony Fauci found 340 papers. How many scientific papers have you published in reputable journals?

Yep, in your mentally disturbed dishonest sick self you find that respect for a well-educated, well-published person who has devoted his life to the public good represents a sense of humor.

YOU ARE SICK SICK SICK

@ Ginny Stoner

You write: “Good rule of thumb: “Relied on” is a phase that should never be used in the same sentence as “Fauci”–unless it’s preceded by “only fools have.”

Wow! You’ve exceeded yourself in absolute empty meaningless comments.

YOU REALLY ARE AN ABSOLUTE MORON

@ Ginny Stoner

On your webpage “Trolls, true believers, and other lying liars” [https://www.virginiastoner.com/writing/2022/8/1/vaccine-trolls-true-believers-and-other-lying-liars] you include some quotes from me that the 1918 vaccine was not a flu vaccine. Correct, it targeted a bacteria that they found in the lungs of flu pandemic patients, calling it flu. But what you left out in your continued dishonest lying work was that studies found that those who got the vaccine had significantly fewer deaths, so the vaccine worked. As scientist know, most cases of deaths from flu are actually from secondary opportunistic bacteria. The flu virus causes sloughing off epithelial cells in the lungs, etc. thus exposing them to bacteria. I explained this and you left it out.

CAN’T YOU EVER TELL THE TRUTH???

“What I forgot” doesn’t change that fact that you falsely claimed Spanish Flu vaccines didn’t exist. But I’m happy to leave it up to readers to judge for themselves whether you are a troll, true believer, or other lying liar. I invited you to comment there in your own defense, but you never did.

Oh? Then why did all the doctors administering these vaccines at the time, and all the researchers and doctors who developed these vaccines, tell patients they were vaccines to prevent or cure Spanish Flu?

@ Ginny Stoner

You write: ““What I forgot” doesn’t change that fact that you falsely claimed Spanish Flu vaccines didn’t exist. But I’m happy to leave it up to readers to judge for themselves whether you are a troll, true believer, or other lying liar. I invited you to comment there in your own defense, but you never did.”

Yikes! Just how stupidly dishonest are you. I explained several times that they did call it a Spanish Flu vaccine; but it wasn’t a flu vaccine; but a vaccine against a bacteria, a bacteria responsible for many of the Spanish flu pandemic deaths, a secondary opportunistic bacteria. I also explained that the vaccine did save lives.

So, yep, there existed a vaccine which was called a Spanish flu vaccine; but it wasn’t a Spanish flu vaccine; but a vaccine against a bacteria. So, they gave it a wrong name. I can put a label on a can saying sugar; but if it is salt, the label would be wrong.

YOU ARE A REALLY DISGUSTING MENTALLY DISTURBED INDIVIDUAL

I believe that if there was a vote on the most dishonest, sickest antivaxxer commenting on this blog, you would be the winner.

Ginny Stoner is quite content to quote (or demiquote) Dr. Fauci as an authority when it suits her purpose of the moment of trying to support her nonsense. Then Ginny Stoner turns around and writes “I don’t really care what Fauci has to say–he’s a CWAC, and corrupt to the core.” Consistency, with the exception of the ability to be wrong almost all the time, is not a strong point of antivaxxers like Ginny Stoner who understand nothing and write nonsense.

“Authority”? LOL–Fauci doesn’t belong in the same sentence with “authority.”

Just throwing a li’l bone, Doug–we all know how much provaxers love Fauci. Just ask Joel A. Harrison, PhD, MPH.

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